Morgan Stanley - Next Week in Emerging Markets
Week of July 6-10
Weekly Spotlights
Russia: Harder Choices for 2010 by Oliver Weeks. The delayed fiscal stimulus, stronger gas exports and progress on arranging bank recapitalization make us more positive than we were on the prospects for growth in 2H. We are still bullish on rates, yet not on RUB. (page 2)
Brazil: Are Lower Real Rates Here to Stay? by Marcelo Carvalho. Brazil's nominal policy interest rate has nowfallen to single-digits for the first time in memory, and real rates have dropped to record lows. Are they here to stay? In our view, structural convergence to sustainable lower real interest rates will likely prove to be a gradual process over time, still dependent on further structural progress. (page 6)
China: Green Shoots in Profits by Qing Wang and Steven Zhang. Latest data suggest that green shoots inthe economy have taken root. We examine several indicators that may help to gauge the outlook for industrialprofits. The latest readings point to green shoots in profits, and these trends will likely continue, in our view. (page 11)
UAE: How Strong the Recovery? by Mohamed Jaber. We remain committed to our positive view on the UAE'seconomic fundamentals and long-term growth potential. However, although the worst may indeed be over, webelieve that the country will continue to face significant economic challenges in the near term. (page 14)
Asia-Pacific: Rise in Asset Prices: New Challenge for Asian Central Banks by Chetan Ahya, Qing Wang andSharon Lam. The aggressive global policy response and rising excess liquidity in the local banking systems have led to a significant rise in asset markets. While we do not expect any rate hikes until 1Q10, we think that any concerns on asset price rises in the next six months could be addressed by sector-specific measures. (page 19)
Thailand: Getting its Fiscal Act Together by Deyi Tan, Chetan Ahya and Shweta Singh. With sub-par globalgrowth and the uncertain political outlook, any alpha in domestic demand will have to hinge on fiscal execution, in our view. The second stimulus package is likely to offer more alpha to the domestic demand momentum, more evidently in 2H09 as spending kicks in. (page 23)
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