BoA - Merrill Lynch: A more optimistic GDP forecast

2010 global real GDP forecast hiked from 3.2% to 3.7% Downward pressures on economic activity remain strong, particularly with respect to falling employment and credit growth, as well as weak consumer spending in the advanced economies. However, the leading indicators for the supply side of the economy keep improving, the process of de-stocking cannot go on for ever, additional fiscal stimulus has been deployed in the US, and central banks continue to pump liquidity into the banking system.

Our forecast for global real GDP growth in 2009 remains at -1.0%. US and Asian projections raised, Europe largely unchanged The US forecast improves from -2.6% in 2009 and +1.7% in 2010, to -2.1% in 2009 and +2.6% in 2010. The forecast for emerging economies also improves significantly, especially in the case of Asia, where China is now expected to post a 9.6% growth rate in 2010, up from 8.3% previously, and India is projected to grow7.3% versus the old forecast of 7.1%. The outlook for the smaller Asian economies also improves significantly, with the Korean forecast rising form 3.0% to 4.0%, and Taiwan from 3.5% to 4.5%.

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A more optimistic GDP forecast

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