BoA - Merrill Lynch: Encuesta de gestores de fondos - Julio 2009
Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey Finds Investors Heading for Cover as Falling Equities Test Nerves. Respondents keep rock-solid faith in emerging markets
Investors have responded to a fall in world equity markets by scaling back their risk taking and returning to recession-proof stocks, according to the Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers for July.
Average cash balances rose to 4.7 percent from 4.2 percent in June. Having been fleetingly underweight all the big defensive sectors, investors have started reversing their stance. A net 11 percent of respondents are now overweight pharmaceuticals, a traditional safe-haven, compared to a net 2 percent underweight the sector in June. Exposure to staples and telecoms also rose. The percentage of investors overweight Materials, a highly cyclical sector, fell to a net 1 percent from a net 15 percent in June. World equity markets fell by 4.9 percent from July 2-9 when this survey was completed.
Confidence in the global economy remains strong, however. A net 79 percent of the panel believes global growth will improve in the next 12 months, up from 78 percent in June. “July’s survey shows confidence in global markets remains very fragile. Investors believe the worst is over for the economy but are very narrowly positioned for recovery in emerging markets and technology stocks,” said Michael Hartnett, Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch chief global equities strategist.
“The market has duly delivered on investors’ universal wish for a market pullback, which now poses the question of whether investors have the courage of their convictions to invest for economic recovery in the second half of the year,” said Gary Baker, Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch head of European equity strategy.
Decoupling II: Investors shun West in favor of emerging markets
Amid reduced risk taking, investors are increasing, rather than scaling back, their allocations to emerging markets, at the expense of investment in Europe and the U.S. “Decoupling is having a sequel. Investors are very overweight emerging market equities while at the same time underweight every other equity region,” said Michael Hartnett.
A net 48 percent of respondents say that emerging markets is the region they most want to be overweight, an increase of 11 percentage points from June’s survey. The second-favorite destination is Japan but the gap is great; only a net 2 percent of the panel wants to be overweight Japanese equities.
Investors have become more negative about equities in both the eurozone and the U.S. A net 30 percent of the panel would most like to underweight the eurozone – the worst reading on the region since 2001. A net 9 percent would most like to underweight U.S. equities, compared with a net 3 percent wanting to overweight the U.S. in June.
Investors are overriding the perceived lack of value on offer in emerging markets to remain bullish towards the region. A net 8 percent of global respondents view emerging markets as overvalued. Equities broadly are seen as undervalued by 8 percent of the panel.
European investors retreat from equities, despite macro optimism
European respondents are starting to believe that an end to recession is in sight, but their equity allocations show they are becoming more, rather than less, defensive.
The regional survey shows a net 52 percent expecting recession to continue in the next 12 months, down from 70 percent in June. Furthermore a net 20 percent says that equities are undervalued. However, in the past month they have scaled back positions in 15 out of 19 sectors. European portfolio managers have only increased exposure to healthcare/pharmaceuticals, food & beverages, telecoms and utilities – all counter-cyclical sectors. A net 33 percent reduced exposure to industrial goods & services over the month. European investors are now only overweight healthcare/pharmaceuticals, oil & gas, technology and telecoms.
“European investors’ defensiveness has left them overweight just 4 out of 19 sectors. If the macroeconomic outlook is correct, then these extreme underweight positions are looking unsustainable,” said Patrik Schöwitz, Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch European equity strategist.
Survey of Fund Managers
A total of 221 fund managers, managing a total of US$635 billion, participated in the global survey from 2 July to 9 July. A total of 191 managers, managing US$405 billion, participated in the regional surveys. The survey was conducted by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Research with the help of market research company TNS. Through its international network in more than 50 countries, TNS provides market information services in over 80 countries to national and multi-national organizations. It is ranked as the fourth-largest market information group in the world.
Comentarios
NO HAY COMENTARIOS - Escriba el suyo...Comentar este artículo:
Normas de uso- Esta es la opinión de los usuarios, no del blog ni de Estrategias de inversión.
- Los comentarios contrarios a las leyes españolas, injuriantes o difamatorios serán eliminados, así como aquellos que consideremos que estén fuera del tema o contengan publicidad.
"Aviso al moderador". Si considera que algún comentario incumple la normativa, le agradecemos nos lo comunique por esta opción para nuestra valoración.
