RBS - Still on a sticky wicket?

Last week's releases continued to pour cold water on the idea that a robust recovery is close at hand. China was the exception, reporting rapid growth in Q2, although questions remain about the sustainability of its upturn too.

One of the defining features of the current downturn has been the collapse in world trade, which intensifiedin Q1. The total value of trade of the 30 most industrialised nations fell by an unprecedented 27% y/y -the fastest pace since OECD statistics began in 1970. Exports of goods in the seven largest developed nations (the G7) took a battering, with volumes slumping 23% y/y, much worse than the 8% y/y decline recorded in the previous quarter. Japan was hardest hit, with exports tumbling 42% y/y, followed by France and Germany, which posted 26% and 23% declines, respectively. The UK and US fared better, although the 17% declines recorded by both still mark a wrenching adjustment for their exporters. Sterling is probably playing a stabilising role in the UK’s case, with the pound down 20% since 2007 on a trade-weighted basis.

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RBS Weekly Brief 20.07.09

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