Exane - INDRA 23.07.09
Outperform
Target price: EUR19 (+19%)
Sector rating: Underperform
► We forecast H1 2009 revenues of EUR1,309m and H109 EBIT of EUR145mOur H1 revenue forecast is based on 5% organic growth, which implies a slowdown in Q2 vs Q1 (3% organic growth vs. 8% achieved in Q1). We forecast a stated EBIT margin of 11.1%, declining by 30bp yoy. Our H1 2009 stated EPS stands at EUR0.62. The consensus forecasts sales of EUR1,326m and an EBIT margin of 11.2% leading to an EBIT of EUR149m, 3% above our forecasts.
► 2009e guidance still slightly above our forecastsIndra’s current guidance for FY09e is 5-7% revenue growth and a stated EBIT margin of 11.3% to 11.5%. This compares to our forecast of 4% revenue growth and a stated EBIT margin of 11%. The company’s guidance is 4 to 8% above our forecasts (and 1% to 5% above consensus) at the EBIT level. Indra has a strong track record of delivering results in-line or above its guidance.
► Outperform rating maintainedWe maintain our Outperform rating on Indra. The company has a more defensive profile with 70% of its sales coming from the public sector, defence and utilities. Gas Natural’s 18% stake in Indra created a share overhang which was resolved on 2 July, with 10% sold to Corporacion Financiera Alba and the rest to institutions. Indra’smanagement has a strong track record of delivering results and achieving targets and benefits from higher visibility than average, in our view, due to its specific business model. We believe that this justifies the fact that the company trades at a premium vs. peers (at 1.14x 2009e EV/sales vs. peers at 0.43x and at 10.3x 2009e EV/EBITA vs. peers at 6.9x).
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